6/7/2023 0 Comments Hurricane irene trackmapLarge uncertainty in predicting the strength of TCs thus remains, which has its most significant implications for landfalling TCs where impacts to life and property-via storm surge, wind damage, and inland flooding-are greatest. This intensity gap can be traced to high‐resolution requirements for TC models, poor understanding and modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer, difficulty for many existing assimilation techniques to ingest observations of small but intense features, and-most importantly for this study-challenges in modeling the upper ocean response to TCs. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.Īlthough substantial progress in the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks has been realized globally over the past few decades, TC intensity prediction skill has remained comparatively flat across all TC ocean basins. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. ![]() Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Rud.Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. You can find information on how to keep safe at. If you're anywhere near Sandy, stay informed and above all, stay safe. It differers from the version on Bob's blog post because I ran the R script just now (at 16:38 PST) - that's the power of using live data! The forecast track shows Sandy heading north into Canada. O'Reilly's Strata site has a good overview of the open-data Sandy-tracking apps available.įor example, R user Bob Rudis has written an R script to grab up-to-date hurricane tracking data from Unisys Weather, and combine it with the forecast cone from Google's crisis map, to create the following combined picture of where Sandy's been, and where it's going: Fortunately, the wealth of public meteorological data available on the open web, combined with real-time on-the-ground updates via social media, means that an ecosystem of on-line apps is now available providing all the up-to-date information you need. Naturally, everyone is looking for the latest information and forecasts. ![]() Hurricane Sandy is shaping up to be a major, and very dangerous, meteorological event for the US's East coast.
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